Week of March 02–06
Macro (U.S.) — first-week reset: PMIs → labor → payrolls
Last week was about trading a thinner macro tape and respecting calendar uncertainty. Next week flips the regime: the market gets a full sequence of growth and labor signals again, and that usually means cleaner rate discovery.
The rhythm matters: Monday sets the growth tone (ISM), Wednesday layers in breadth + conditions (ADP/Services/Beige Book), and Friday decides whether the week’s move earns follow-through (NFP).
Mon, Mar 2 — growth tone-setter (and a real-time check on demand)
- 10:00am ET — ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (first business day release).
- 10:00am ET — Construction Spending (first-week flow input; can matter more when rates are twitchy).
Tue, Mar 3 — positioning day
- No obvious “one-print” risk scheduled. Expect more positioning and levels work ahead of Wednesday’s stack.
Wed, Mar 4 — the mid-week cluster (rates get multiple bullets)
- 8:15am ET — ADP National Employment Report (Feb).
- 10:00am ET — ISM Services PMI (Feb) (third business day release).
- 2:00pm ET — Fed Beige Book (conditions + pricing anecdotes; can matter when the curve is leaning).
Thu, Mar 5 — labor texture + price pass-through
- 8:30am ET — Productivity & Costs (Prelim), Q4 2025.
- 8:30am ET — Import/Export Price Indexes (Jan 2026).
- 8:30am ET — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly, but it can swing the front end when expectations are tight).
Fri, Mar 6 — the closer
- 8:30am ET — Employment Situation / Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb 2026).
Next big anchor (already on deck):
BEA’s GDP (Second Estimate, Q4 2025) and Personal Income & Outlays (Jan 2026, incl. PCE) are both scheduled for Mar 13 (8:30am ET). Keep that in mind when you see the curve “overreact” next week — the market knows a bigger macro battery is coming.
High-impact earnings — where single names can hijack index flow
NVDA printed this week; next week’s biggest earnings risk is more about second-order AI + consumer demand than headline hype.
- Sat, Feb 28 (8:00am ET): Berkshire annual report + earnings release (weekend headline risk + positioning into Sunday night).
- Wed, Mar 4 (post-close): Broadcom (AVGO) + 5:00pm ET call (2:00pm PT).
- Thu, Mar 5 (5:00pm ET): Costco (COST) earnings call (2:00pm PT).
Equities — framing the week
Next week is built for rates-led leadership tests.
- If PMIs + labor stack push yields higher and keep them there, equity strength needs to be proven through leaders (not broad hope).
- If the data sequence softens and yields leak lower, the market gets permission to re-price growth duration — but only if the bid shows up after the numbers, not before.
The cleanest play is to let the curve choose first, then express in equities once leadership confirms.
Tactical setup
- Mon: Treat the ISM window as the week’s first real “risk auction.” Let the first 15–30 minutes settle before sizing up.
- Tue: Don’t force trades. Use it to map levels and identify what the market is pre-positioning for Wednesday.
- Wed: Trade the sequence: ADP → Services → Beige Book. If rates trend and hold through the first hour after ISM Services, follow-through odds improve.
- Thu: Claims + trade prices can spark quick curve reprices. Stay picky; avoid getting chopped in mean-revert if the market is just waiting for Friday.
- Fri: Payrolls is the closer. If the post-8:30 move holds into the cash open, you usually get a tradable second leg. If it fades immediately, cut it fast.
Housekeeping / schedule integrity
The calendar has been unreliable recently — so treat timing as part of risk. Pin primary sources: BLS release schedule, ISM release calendar, Fed calendar, and BEA schedule updates.