Next Week Outlook: Positioning for Catalysts

Week of Feb 23–27

Macro (U.S.) — the calendar is the catalyst (and it’s still moving)

Next week should have carried bigger “tier-1” risk, but the schedule reshuffle matters more than the prints. BEA has pushed GDP (Second Estimate, Q4 2025) and Personal Income & Outlays (Jan 2026, incl. PCE) to March 13 (8:30am ET).

That leaves the market trading a thinner set of signals: confidence + housing price data on Tuesday, then labor pulse Thursday, …plus key Census flow data (M3/wholesale trade) and a Friday construction spend catch-up — while several bigger Census reports still sit in “TBD” reschedule territory for March.

Translation: the week is less about one headline number and more about how rates behave when the usual macro “anchors” aren’t there.

Mon, Feb 23 — early-cycle texture (regional + activity)

• 8:30am ET — Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (Dec 2025 & Jan 2026).
• 10:00am ET — Full Report: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3) (Dec 2025).
• 10:30am ET — Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Feb).

Tue, Feb 24 — confidence + housing prices (rates-sensitive)

• 9:00am ET — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (2-month lag; latest release).
• FHFA House Price Index (Quarterly index w/ monthly tables; Dec 2025 & 2025Q4).
• 10:00am ET — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb).
• 10:00am ET — Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) (Feb).
• 10:00am ET — Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories (Dec 2025).

This is the closest thing to a “macro event day.” If confidence breaks one way and housing prices confirm the other, rates will pick the winner.

Wed, Feb 25 — financial conditions check

• 8:30am ET — Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) (weekly).

Otherwise, treat mid-week as positioning + calendar optionality: Census still has several key releases marked TBD.

Thu, Feb 26 — labor pulse + potential surprise prints

• 8:30am ET — Initial Jobless Claims.
• 8:30am ET — Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Advance).

Also watch for schedule updates that set March dates for key February reference-month Census releases (new home sales, advance durables, advance indicators), many still listed as TBD.

Fri, Feb 27 — inflation cross-check + month-end flow (rates first, then risk)

• 8:30am ET — Producer Price Index (PPI), Jan 2026.
• 10:00am ET — Construction Spending (Nov & Dec 2025), rescheduled releases.

With GDP/PCE pushed out, this is the cleanest inflation signal on the week’s tape. Month-end rebalancing can amplify whatever direction rates pick post-print.

Equities — framing the week

Next week won’t be decided by a single macro bundle — it will be decided by the rates' response to a thinner set of inputs. Tuesday’s confidence + housing price data can jolt expectations intraday, but Friday’s PPI is the one scheduled inflation release that can actually shift the curve.

Tactical setup

• Mon: treat it like a positioning day — trade smaller, let the first move show its hand.
• Tue: don’t chase the first print — watch rates first, then express in equities once leadership confirms.
• Wed: calendar uncertainty = optionality; keep risk tight and avoid getting trapped by surprise release timing.
• Thu: claims can reset the tone fast; if yields move and hold through the first hour, follow-through odds improve.
• Fri: PPI is the closer — if the post-8:30am rates move holds through the first hour, follow-through odds improve into next week. Month-end flow can distort the first impulse; wait for structure.

Housekeeping / schedule integrity

The reshuffle is still live. Keep your source of truth pinned to official schedules (BEA/Census) and treat “TBD” as a volatility trigger, not a footnote.

BLS has also published revised release-date guidance around the funding-lapse disruption — assume calendars can change again.

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